Retail sales. Persistence in the short term and long term dynamics
- Gil Alaña, Luis Alberiko
- Barros, Carlos P.
- Assaf, Albert
Year of publication: 2010
Issue: 3
Type: Working paper
Abstract
The management of retail sales is of paramount importance to retail organisations and retail policy makers. This study examines the degrees of time persistence and seasonality of various retail sectors using innovative seasonal and non-seasonal fractional integration and autoregressions models. Adapting data from both the Australian and US retail sectors, the results indicate that the impacts of seasonality and persistence are not consistent across the various retail sectors. It also clear that retail sales forecasts are better explained in terms of a long memory model that incorporates both persistence and seasonal components.