Cuarenta años de polarización ideológica en España
ISSN: 2254-6413
Argitalpen urtea: 2022
Alea: 25
Zenbakia: 2
Orrialdeak: 75-105
Mota: Artikulua
Beste argitalpen batzuk: Revista empresa y humanismo
Laburpena
This article analyses the evolution of ideological polarisation in the Spanish party system since 1979. We offer a reformulation to improve the index’s accuracy when measuring polarization and apply it to the 14 general elections held in the country since the approval of the current Constitution. The results show the development consisting of two separated periods of seven elections each, together with a clear increase in ideological polarisation since 2015, reaching an alltime high at the present time. The measurement of ideological polarisation is complemented with the volatility and electoral competition generated by the arrival of new parties. The most notable increases happened after critical elections, this is, elections in which a substantial and long-lasting changes in electoral aligning took place.
Erreferentzia bibliografikoak
- Abramowitz, Alan I. y Saunders, Kyle L. (2008), "Is Polarization a Myth?", The Journal of Politics, vol. 70, nº 2, pp. 542-555. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381608080493
- Bartolini, Stefano y Mair, Peter (2007), "Identity, Competition and Electoral Availability: the Stabilisation of European Electorates 1885-1985", ECPR Press, ECPR Classics, http://hdl.handle.net/1814/7073
- Bergmann, Henning; Bäck, Hanna y Saalfeld, Thomas (2021), "Partysystem Polarisation, Legislative Institutions and Cabinet Survival in 28 Parliamentary Democracies, 1945-2019", West European Politics, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2020.1870345
- Best, Robin E. y Dow, Jay K. (2015), "Simplicity is a Virtue: Measuring Party System Polarization", Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 3-6 September.
- Bramson, Aaron; Grim, Patrick; Singer, Daniel J.; Berger, William J.; Sack, Graham; Fisher, Steven; Flocken, Carissa y Holman, Bennett (2017), "Understanding Polarization: Meanings, Measures, and Model Evaluation", Philosophy of Science, vol. 84, nº 1, pp. 115-159. https://doi.org/10.1086/688938
- Brewer, Mark D. (2005), "The Rise of Partisanship and the Expansion of Partisan Conflict within the American Electorate", Political Research Quarterly, vol. 58, nº 2, pp. 219-229. https://doi.org/10.1177/106591290505800203
- Casal Bértoa, Fernando (2014), "Party Systems and Cleavage Structures Revisited: A Sociological Explanation of Party System Institutionalization in East Central Europe", Party Politics, vol. 20, nº 1, pp. 16-36. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068811436042
- Casal Bértoa, Fernando (2019), "Causas y consecuencias de la polarización", Cuadernos de Pensamiento Político, nº 64, pp. 5-16.
- Casal Bértoa, Fernando y Rama Caamaño, José (2017), "¿Democracia en Crisis? El futuro de los partidos políticos y de la democracia representativa", Revista de Las Cortes Generales, pp. 249-273. https://doi.org/10.33426/rcg/2017/100-102/31
- Chiaramonte, Alessandro y Emanuele, Vincenzo (2017), "Party System Volatility, Regeneration and de-Institutionalization inWestern Europe (1945- 2015)", Party Politics, vol. 23, nº 4, pp. 376-388. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068815601330
- Chiaramonte, Alessandro y Emanuele, Vincenzo (2019), "Towards Turbulent Times: Measuring and Explaining Party System (de- )Institutionalization in Western Europe (1945-2015)", Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana Di Scienza Politica, vol. 49, nº 1, pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1017/ipo.2017.27
- corrales, Javier (2005), "In Search of a Theory of Polarization: Lessons from Venezuela, 1999-2005", European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies/Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, nº 79, pp. 105-118. https://doi.org/10.18352/erlacs.9666
- Dalton, Russell J. (2006), "Social Modernization and the End of Ideology Debate: Patterns of Ideological Polarization", Japanese Journal of Political Science, vol. 7, nº 1, pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109905002045
- Dalton, Russell J. (2008), "The Quantity and the Quality of Party Systems: Party System Polarization, Its Measurement, and Its Consequences", Comparative Political Studies, vol. 41, nº 7, pp. 899-920. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414008315860
- Delgado Sotillos, Irene y López-Nieto, Lourdes (2012), Comportamiento político y sociología electoral, UNED, Madrid.
- Dixit, Avinash. K. yWeibull, Jörgen.W. (2007), "Political Polarization", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 104, nº 18, pp. 7351-7356. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0702071104
- Downs, Anthony (1957), "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy", Journal of Political Economy, vol. 65, nº 2, pp. 135-150. https://doi.org/10.1086/257897
- Emanuele, Vincenzo (2015), "Dataset of Electoral Volatility and its Internal Components in Western Europe (1945-2015)", Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies.
- Enyedi, Zsolt (2016), "Populist Polarization and Party System Institutionalization", Problems of Post-Communism, pp. vol. 63, nº 4, pp. 210- 220. https://doi.org/10.1080/10758216.2015.1113883
- Ezrow, Lawrence (2008), "Parties' Policy Programmes and the Dog that didn't Bark: No Evidence that Proportional Systems Promote Extreme Party Positioning", British Journal of Political Science, vol. 38, nº 3, pp. 479-497. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123408000240
- Fiorina, Morris P. & Abrams, Samuel J. (2008), "Political Polarization in the American Public", Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 11, nº 1, pp. 563-588 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.053106.153836
- Freire, André (2008), "Party Polarization and Citizens Left-Right Orientations", Party Politics, vol. 14, nº 2, pp. 189-209. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068807085889
- Gidron, Noam; Adams, James y Horne, Will (2018), "How Ideology, Economics and Institutions Shape Affective Polarization in Democratic Politics". Presented at the Annual Conference of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 30-September 2.
- Gidron, Noam; Adams, James y Horne,Will (2020), American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108914123
- Goldberg, Andreas C; van Elsas, Erika J. y de Vreese, Claes H. (2020), "Mismatch? Comparing Elite and Citizen Polarisation on EU Issues Across Four Countries", Journal of European Public Policy, vol. 27, nº 2, pp. 310-328. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2019.1701531
- Gunther, Richard & Montero, José Ramón (2001), "The Anchors of Partisanship: A Comparative Analysis of Voting Behavior in Four Southern European Democracies", in Parties, Politics, and Democracy in the New Southern Europe, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, pp. 83-152.
- Hetherington, Marc J. (2001), "Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization", American Political Science Review, vol. 95, nº 3, pp. 619- 631. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055401003045
- Howard, Marc Morjé y Roessler, Philip G. (2006), "Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes", American Journal of Political Science, vol. 50, nº 2, pp. 365-381. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00189.x
- Iyengar, Shanto yWestwood, Sean J. (2015), "Fear and Loathing Across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization", American Journal of Political Science, vol. 59, nº3, pp. 690-707. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12152
- Key Jr, Valdimer O. (1955), "A Theory of Critical Elections", The Journal of Politics, vol 17, nº 1, pp. 3-18. https://doi.org/10.2307/2126401
- Knutsen, Oddbjørn y Kumlin, Staffan (2003), "Value Orientations and Party Choice-A Comparative Longitudinal Study of Five Countries", Presented at the 2nd ECPR Conference, Marburg, 18-21 September, pp. 18- 21.
- Laakso, Markku & Taagepera, Rein (1979), "Effective Number of Parties: a Measure with Application to West Europe", Comparative Political Studies, vol. 12, nº 1, pp. 3-27. https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407901200101
- Lachat, Romain (2008), "The Impact of Party Polarization on Ideological Voting", Electoral Studies, vol. 27, nº 4, pp. 687-698. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2008.06.002
- Lauka, Alban, McCoy, McCoy, Jennifer y Firat, Rengin B. (2018), "Mass Partisan Polarization: Measuring a Relational Concept", American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 62, nº 1, pp. 107-126. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764218759581
- Levendusky, Matthew y Jackman, Simon (2003), Reconsidering the Measurement of Political Knowlege,Working Paper, Stanford University.
- Lupu, Noam (2015), "Party Polarization and Mass Partisanship: A Comparative Perspective", Political Behavior, vol. 37, nº 2, pp. 331-356. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-014-9279-z
- Maihold, Günther (2007), "La crispación. Instrumentos y efectos de la polarización política en España", en España: Del Consenso a La Polarización: Cambios En La Democracia Española, pp. 393-408.
- Mainwaring, Scott (ed.) (1996), Building Democratic Institutions: Party Systems in Latin America, Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford.
- Mainwaring, Scott y Scully, Timothy R. (1995), "La institucionalización de los sistemas de partidos en América Latina", Revista de Ciencia Política, vol. 17, nº 1-2, pp. 63-101.
- Mainwaring, Scott y Torcal, Mariano (2006), "Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory after the Third Wave of Democratization", in Handbook of party politics, Sage Publications, Londres, pp. 204-227. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781848608047.n19
- Mair, Peter (1996), "Party Systems and Structures of Competition", Comparing Democracies, Sage, Londres.
- Mair, Peter (2007), "Left-right Orientations", in The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 206-222. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.003.0011
- Mair, Peter (2011), "The Election in Context", in Gallagher, Michael y Marsh, Michael (eds.), How Ireland Voted 2011: The Full Story of Ireland's Earthquake Election, Palgrave, Basingstoke, pp. 283-297. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230354005_13
- Maravall, José Antonio (1981), "Los apoyos partidistas en España: polarización, fragmentación y estabilidad", Revista de Estudios Políticos, vol. 23, pp. 9-32.
- McCoy, Jennifer; Rahman, Tahmina y Somer, Murat (2018), "Polarization and the Global Crisis of Democracy: Common Patterns, Dynamics, and Pernicious Consequences for Democratic Polities", American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 62, nº 1, pp. 16-42. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764218759576
- Miller, Luis (2020), "La polarización política en España: entre ideologías y sentimientos", Papeles de Relaciones Ecosociales y Cambio Global, 152, pp. 13-22.
- Miller, Luis y Torcal, Mariano (2020), "Veinticinco años de polarización afectiva en España", The Conversation, Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/veinticinco-anos-de-polarizacion-afectiva-enespana-149237
- Montero, José Ramón y Santana, Andrés (2020), "Elections in Spain", in D. Muro, Diego e Lago, Ignacio, The Oxford Handbook of Spanish Politics, Oxford University Press, Oxford. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198826934.013.21
- Morlino, Leonardo (1998), Democracy between Consolidation and Crisis: Parties, Groups, and Citizens in Southern Europe, Oxford University Press, Oxford. https://doi.org/10.1093/0198280823.001.0001
- Norris, Pipa e Inglehart, Ronald (2019), Cultural Backlash: Trump, Brexit, and authoritarian populism, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108595841
- Orriols, Lluis & Balcells, Laia (2012), "Party Polarisation and Spatial Voting in Spain", South European Society and Politics, vol. 17, nº 3, pp. 393-409. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2012.701891
- Rama Caamaño, José (2016), "Ciclos electorales y sistema de partidos en España, 1977-2016", Revista Jurídica, vol. 34, pp. 241-266.
- Rama Caamaño, José & Casal Bértoa, Fernando (2020) "Are Anti- Political-Establishment Parties a Peril for European Democracy? A Longitudinal Study from 1950 till 2017", Representation, vol. 56, nº 3, pp. 387- 410. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2019.1643770
- Reiljan, Andres (2020), "Fear and Loathing across Party Lines (also) in Europe: Affective Polarisation in European Party Systems", European Journal of Political Research, vol. 59, nº 2, pp. 376-396. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12351
- Rodríguez-Teruel, Juan (2021), "Polarisation and Electoral Realignment: The Case of the Right-Wing Parties in Spain", South European Society and Politics, pp. 1-30. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003317012-7
- Rose, Richard y Mishler,William (1998), "Negative and Positive Party Identification in Post-Communist Countries", Electoral Studies, vol. 17, nº 2, pp. 217-234. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(98)00016-X
- Sánchez-Cuenca, Ignacio (2020), "Spanish Democratization: Transition, Consolidation, and its Meaning in Contemporary Spain", in The Oxford Handbook of Spanish Politics, First Edition, pp. 32-47, Oxford University Press, United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198826934.013.3
- Santamaría, Julián; Rabasco, María Esther y Toharia, Luis (eds.) (1982), Transición a la democracia en el sur de Europa y América Latina, Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas, Madrid.
- Sartori, Giovanni (2003), Partidos y sistemas de partidos: Marco para un análisis, Alianza, Madrid.
- Schmitt, Johannes (2016), "How to Measure Ideological Polarization in Party Systems", Presented at the ECPR Graduate Student Conference, Tartu, 10-13 July.
- Sigelman, Lee y Yough, Syng (1978), "Left-right Polarization in National Party Systems: A cross-National Analysis", Comparative Political Studies, vol. 11, nº 3, pp. 355-379. https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407801100304
- Simón, Pablo (2020), "The Multiple Spanish Elections of April and May 2019: The Impact of Territorial and Left-right Polarisation", South European Society and Politics, vol. 25, nº 3-4, pp. 1-34. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1756612
- Simón, Pablo (2021), "Two-bloc Logic, Polarisation and Coalition Government: The November 2019 General Election in Spain", South European Society and Politics, vol. 25, nº 3-4, pp. 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1857085
- Somer, Murat y McCoy, Jennifer (2018), "Déjà vu? Polarization and Endangered Democracies in the 21st Century", American Behavioral Scientist, vol. 62, nº 1, pp. 3-15. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764218760371
- Sørensen, Rune J. (2014), "Political Competition, Party Polarization, and Government Performance", Public Choice, vol 161, nº 3-4, pp. 427-450. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11127-014-0168-0
- Tronconi, Filippo y Valbruzzi, Marco (2020), "Populism Put to the Polarisation Test: The 2019-20 Election Cycle in Italy", South European Society and Politics, vol. 25, nº 3-4, pp. 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1821465