Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale 1
- Luis a. Gil-Alana 2
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1
Brunel University London
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2
Universidad de Navarra
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ISSN: 1096-1879
Any de publicació: 2012
Volum: 16
Número: 1/2
Pàgines: 105-136
Tipus: Article
Altres publicacions en: Multinational Finance Journal
Resum
This paper focuses on nominal exchange rates, specifically the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen at a daily frequency. In the paper both absolute values of returns and squared returns are modelled using long-memory techniques, being particularly interested in volatility modelling and forecasting. Compared with previous studies using fractional integration such as Granger and Ding (1996), a more general model is estimated, which allows for dependence not only at the zero but also at other frequencies. The results show differences in the behaviour of the two series: a long-memory cyclical model and a standard I(1) model seem to be the most appropriate for the US dollar rate vis-à-vis the Euro and the Japanese Yen respectively.